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May 29, 2017

Jobs Bounce Back

Jobs Bounce Back

Joe Manglardi
Mortgage Loan Originator
HomeBridge Financial Services

Joe Manglardi

“I go to work. I get out there. I go get it.” (CeeLo Green) More hardworking Americans were getting jobs in April, as the labor market bounced back from March.

New Home Sales

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 211,000 jobs were created, above the 180,000 expected. The weak March number of 98,000 was revised lower to 79,000. February was revised higher to 232,000 from 219,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent, the lowest level in 10 years. Within the report, it showed that total unemployment, or the U-6 number, fell to 8.6 percent from 8.9 percent, the lowest since November 2011 before the onset of the Great Recession.

The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged at its May 2-3 meeting, noting there were signs of strength in the labor market and that inflation was near its target of 2 percent. The Fed also said that it felt the weak first quarter economic growth was “transitory.”

In housing news, home-price gains remain robust. Leading analytics firm CoreLogic reported that home prices, including distressed sales, rose 7.1 percent from March 2016 to March 2017. It was the 62nd consecutive month of gains. From February to March, prices were up 1.6 percent. The year-over-year home price index is now just 2.8 percent below its 2006 peak. Despite weak economic growth, home prices continue to rise due in part to low inventories of homes for sale.

Home-loan rates remain attractive, which is positive news in the face of rising home prices.

Merchants are looking for signs of a retail sales rebound when April numbers are released on Friday.

Economic data is on the slow side this week beginning on Thursday with weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

We'll get a read on inflation with the Producer Price Index on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index Friday.

Also on Friday, Retail Sales and the Consumer Sentiment Index will be delivered.

If you or someone you know has any questions about current home loan rates or products, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

 

March 19, 2017

Fed Raises Rates

Fed Raises Rates

Joe Manglardi
Mortgage Loan Originator
HomeBridge Financial Services

Joe Manglardi

“Just simple truth and harmony.” Glen Campbell. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen had one simple truth that was like music to Stock and Bond markets: “The simple message is the economy is doing well.”

Nonfarm Payrolls chart

When the Fed expectedly raised its benchmark Federal Funds Rate 0.25 percent at its March 14-15 meeting, Stocks and mortgage bonds improved following the news.

The Fed's tame read on inflation, and its decision to maintain its balance sheet of existing mortgage bonds, helped bonds rally. Meanwhile, stocks responded favorably to the news that the Fed is planning two additional hikes this year, eliminating some uncertainty.

The Fed Funds Rate, with a new target rate range between 0.75 to 1.0 percent, is the rate at which banks lend money to each other overnight and is not directly tied to consumer products like purchase or refinance home loans. Instead, home loan rates are tied to mortgage bond-market performance. Home loan rates can move lower when mortgage bonds improve and vice versa.

There was good news from the housing sector, as the Commerce Department reported that housing starts hit a four-month high, rising 3 percent from January to February to an annual rate of 1.288 million. Housing starts measure when excavation begins on a new home. Starts on single-family homes rose to a near 10-year high. From February 2016 to February 2017, housing starts were up 6.2 percent. The increase is a welcome sign for those in the market for a home as limited inventory has driven home prices up in many areas, discouraging some buyers. Another welcome sign: The National Association of Home Builders reported that its Housing Market Index, a measure of home builder sentiment, jumped six points to the highest level in 12 years.

In economic news, wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected in February, with the year-over-year Producer Price Index reading reaching 2.2 percent, the highest since March 2012. The Consumer Price Index was in line with expectations, falling in February from January to 0.1 percent due in part to lower gasoline prices. Retail sales also met expectations, though they did decline from January.

For those in the market for a new home or a refinance, home loan rates remain attractive.

Housing news dominates the upcoming week. Will the positive momentum continue?

Housing data kicks off on Wednesday with the release of Existing Home Sales, followed by New Home Sales on Thursday.

As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday.

The week rounds out with Durable Goods Orders on Friday.

If you or someone you know has any questions about current home loan rates or products, please don't hesitate to contact me.

 

Jan. 3, 2017

Buyer Confidence Jumps

Confidence Jumps

Joe Manglardi
Loan Officer
Prospect Mortgage 

Joe Manglardi

Over the past week, light trading volume caused a little intraday volatility for mortgage rates, but overall it was a relatively quiet week. Mortgage rates ended the week with little change.

On Tuesday, an index from the Conference Board revealed an increase in consumer confidence in December to the highest level since 2001. The Conference Board surveys consumers about their views on present conditions and their outlook for the future in areas such as the economy, the labor market and incomes. The December increase was entirely due to improved expectations for future economic conditions. 

The Conference Board's report was consistent with recent readings on overall sentiment from other sources. In December, home builders also expressed much greater optimism for the future. According to the providers of the surveys, the improvement in the outlook among consumers and home builders is due to expected policy changes under the Trump administration. This is favorable news for home sales next year as confident consumers are more likely to make major purchases such as a home, and confident home builders should add to the inventory of homes available for sale. 

On a less positive note, Wednesday's data on contracts signed in November to buy previously owned homes fell a little from October. The election likely had an effect in this area, too. Whether the drop was due to the resulting rise in mortgage rates or the uncertainty surrounding the election, the answer should become clearer in the months ahead. 

Source: MBS Quoteline

Joe Manglardi
NMLS# 1128287
Loan Officer
Prospect Mortgage 

280 West Canton Ave., Suite 400
Winter Park, FL 32789
Branch ID: 373958

Office: (407) 618-0322 6
Cell: (407) 963-0451
Fax: (877) 622-2135

Joe.Manglardi@prospectmortgage.com

Dec. 9, 2016

Trend Continues

Trend Continues

Joe Manglardi
Loan Officer
Prospect Mortgage 

Joe Manglardi

The trend in mortgage rates seen since the U.S. election continued over the past week. Wednesday's report on durable goods orders also applied upward pressure. Mortgage rates increased to the highest levels of the year.

Orders for durable goods, which are products designed to last longer than three years, rose in October at the fastest pace in a year. Overall, orders jumped 4.8% from September. Excluding aircraft orders, which are very volatile from month to month, orders rose 1%. Both readings exceeded the consensus forecast by a wide margin. Since stronger economic growth raises the outlook for future inflation, this data was negative for mortgage rates. 

The recent rise in mortgage rates likely will have some effect on the housing market, but fortunately, activity prior to the higher rates was at an encouraging pace. The most recent data shows that closings of existing homes in October were at the highest level since 2007. This is significant since existing home sales account for 90% of total home sales. The data on the remaining 10% - newly built homes - showed that the pace of contracts signed in October remained near the best level of the year.

The lack of inventory of homes has constrained sales all year. Low levels of inventory remain, but some relief may be on the way. Single-family housing starts in October were up 11% over September, and this measure also was at the highest level since 2007. Building permits, which are an early indication of the level of new homes to come on the market, also rose in October. 

Source: MBS Quoteline

Dec. 9, 2016

Offsetting Influences

 

Joe Manglardi
Loan Officer
Prospect Mortgage 

Joe Manglardi

Mortgage rates have had to contend with a wide range of mixed news over the past week. Concerns about an upcoming election in Italy were positive, while rising oil prices and stronger-than-expected U.S. data were negative. These influences were roughly offsetting, and mortgage rates ended the week with little change. 

An upcoming vote in Italy appears to be very close and has become a source of concern for investors. Next Sunday, voters will decide on a referendum designed to speed up lawmaking. If the referendum fails to pass, it likely would lead to a period of political uncertainty in Italy. It likely also would postpone critical reforms for the Italian banking sector, which in turn might put some Italian and other European banks at risk of failing. Investors have reacted to the uncertainty by shifting to safer assets, including U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This added demand for MBS was good for mortgage rates early in the week. 

On Wednesday, OPEC representatives announced that they were closer to a deal to cut oil production. This resulted in one of the largest single-day price increases of the year. Higher oil prices are viewed as negative for mortgage rates, primarily because they raise expectations for future inflation. 

Nearly all of the recent U.S. economic reports have exceeded expectations. Notably, Consumer Confidence jumped to the highest level since 2007. Reports on the labor market, manufacturing and income all contained upside surprises as well. Since stronger economic growth raises the outlook for future inflation, the recent data was negative for mortgage rates. 

Source: MBS Quoteline

Joe Manglardi
NMLS# 1128287
Loan Officer
Prospect Mortgage 

280 West Canton Ave., Suite 400
Winter Park, FL 32789
Branch ID: 373958

Office: (407) 618-0322 6
Cell: (407) 963-0451
Fax: (877) 622-2135

Joe.Manglardi@prospectmortgage.com

 
Nov. 11, 2016

Latest Mortgage Updates 11/2016

No Surprises from Fed

Joe Manglardi
Loan Officer
Prospect Mortgage 

Joe Manglardi

Headlines about the U.S. election caused some volatility for mortgage rates over the past week. The Fed meeting and U.S. economic data had little impact. Mortgage rates ended the week a little higher.

Investors have been reacting to fresh news about the two presidential candidates. For the most part, news that favors a Clinton victory has been good for stocks and bad for bonds. News that favors a Trump victory has had the opposite effect. Investors are not comfortable with uncertainty, so volatility related to the election is likely to continue.

As was widely expected, the U.S. Fed made no policy changes on Wednesday. The Fed statement suggested that Fed officials are closer to raising the federal funds rate than they were at the last meeting on September 21. According to the statement, Fed officials are waiting for "some further evidence" of continued improvement in the economy. According to futures markets, investors think there is over a 70% chance for a rate hike at the December meeting, nearly unchanged from before the release of the Fed statement.

The statement also noted that inflation has increased "somewhat" since earlier in the year. The recently released core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, was 1.7% higher than a year ago, matching expectations. Core PCE has been climbing at a very slow pace in recent months. According to the Fed statement, Fed officials expect that inflation will rise to their target level of 2% "over the medium term."

Source: MBS Quoteline

Single-Family Home Sales Rise to Highest Level in Almost 9 Years
Dwindling supply opens door for new construction growth

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development recently announced that sales of new single-family houses in July 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 659,000 — the highest level since October 2007. This is 14 percent above the revised June rate of 579,000 and 32.3 percent above the July 2015 estimate of 498,000. 

While the industry revels in this recent spike, home supply continues to dwindle. According to Reuters, at July’s sales pace it would take 4.3 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, the fewest since June 2013, and down from 4.9 months in June. It is commonly held that a 6-month supply shows a market to be in equilibrium.

Enter new construction
While the sales of new single-family homes shows excellent growth, Mike Kelly, SVP, Construction Lending at Prospect Mortgage, points out that “as much as we’ve had great growth and momentum over the last three years, we still aren’t even back to the 20-year historical norm. We’ve been at a consistent 12 percent to 16 percent increase over the last several years and we are at 654,000. Yet, the average is somewhere between 780,000 and 1 million per year over the last 20 years. Everyone is excited about new construction housing doing well; yet, we are not even back to historical normal levels, which speaks to high probability and the need for continued growth in the new construction market over the next three to five years.”

In a recent NAR article, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, “Severely restrained inventory and the tightening grip it’s putting on affordability is the primary culprit for the considerable sales slump throughout much of the country last month. Realtors® are reporting diminished buyer traffic because of the scarce number of affordable homes on the market, and the lack of supply is stifling the efforts of many prospective buyers attempting to purchase while mortgage rates hover at historical lows.”

“If there are already too few homes in America for the numbers of people who want to buy, how do you fix that?” said Kelly. “You build more homes.”

Prospect Mortgage’s New Construction Division
“New construction is a huge opportunity to build our way out of this inventory issue over the next three to five years,” said Kelly. “So if you haven’t yet, you should jump aboard and learn more about Prospect’s new construction platform and all the capabilities we have to help our Real Estate Agent partners sell more homes.”

For more information about the New Construction market or Prospect’s New Construction platform, please contact me today.

Informational materials for Builder and Real Estate Professionals Only. Materials are not intended for use by or distribution to consumers as defined by Section 1026.2 of Regulation Z, which implements the Truth-In-Lending Act.” LR 2016-816C

Nov. 11, 2016

Orlando Market Report: October 2016

Here's the numbers for October 2016

Median Price

*The median price of all existing homes combined sold in September 2016 — $205,000 — is a 12.33 percent increase from the $182,500 median price recorded in September 2015, and was unchanged from the August 2016 median price of $205,000.

*The median price for “normal” existing homes sold in September is $215,000, an increase of 5.39 percent from the median price of “normal” existing homes in September 2015.

*The year-over-year median price for bank-owned sales increased by 4.85 percent in September while the median price for short sales increased by 15.56 percent.

*The year-over-year median price for single-family homes increased by 12.50 percent, and the year-over-year median price for condos increased 6.57 percent.

Sales

*Orlando home sales (all home types and all sales types combined) in September 2016 were up 2.59 percent when compared to September of 2015 and down 10.43 percent compared to August 2016.

*Single-family sales increased 1.43 percent year over year, while condo sales increased by 6.51 percent.

*Of the 3,091 sales in September, 2,766 normal sales accounted for 89.49 percent of all sales, while 240 bank-owned and 85 short sales respectively made up 7.76 percent and 2.75 percent.

*The number of normal sales in September increased by 20.52 percent compared to September 2015, while foreclosures decreased 60.33 percent and short-sales decreased 24.78 percent.

*The 4,594 pendings in September of this year are a decrease of 14.15 percent compared to the 5,351 pendings in September of last year (and a 7.29 percent decrease compared to the 4,955 pendings last month).

*Short sales made up 15.59 percent of pendings in September, a decline of 41.22 percent from September of last year. Normal properties accounted for 73.38 percent (an increase of 10.16 percent) of sales, and bank-owned properties accounted for 11.04 percent (a decrease of 52.75 percent).

*Sales of existing homes within the entire Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties) in September (3,706) were up by 1.17 percent when compared to September of 2015 (3,663). To date, sales in the MSA are down 0.17 percent.

Each individual county’s monthly sales comparisons are as follows: 
 
• Lake: 2.92 percent above September 2015; 
• Orange: 1.11 percent above September 2015; 
• Osceola: 4.66 percent below September 2015; and 
• Seminole: 4.73 percent above September 2015.

Inventory

*There are currently 10,362 homes available for purchase through the MLS. The September 2016 overall inventory level is 10.15 percent lower than it was in September 2015; inventory is down 1.36 percent compared to August 2016.

*The inventory of normal sales increased 0.07 percent compared to September 2015, while foreclosure inventory is down 65.66 percent and short sale inventory is down 46.08 percent.

*Year-over-year single-family home inventory is down 9.16 percent; condo inventory is down 18.75 percent.
 
*The current pace of sales (all home types and all home types) translates into 3.35 months of inventory supply.

Other

*New contracts are down 8.79 percent compared to September of 2015. New listings are down 0.19 percent.

*The Orlando affordability index decreased to 161.74 percent in September. First-time homebuyer affordability in September decreased to 115.02 percent. 

*Homes of all types spent an average of 60 days on the market (up from 56 the month prior) before coming under contract in September 2016, and the average home sold for 97.06 percent of its listing price down from 97.31) percent the month prior

Aug. 19, 2016

How To Appeal Your Property Taxes

HOW TO APPEAL YOUR PROPERTY TAXES

 

The National Taxpayers Union (NTU) says that up to 60% of homeowners may be paying too much in property tax. Typically fewer than 5 percent of taxpayers challenge their assessments, even though the majority who do so win at least a partial victory when properly prepared. NTU also offers a Homeowner’s Checklist of helpful tips for appealing your assessment.

Here are some steps to take if you think you’re overpaying:

  • Visit your tax office’s website or local office to obtain a copy of your property’s assessment (called a property card) and the instructions and forms you need to appeal. The appeal process can vary depending on where you live, so follow your tax office’s instructions carefully.
  • Scrutinize the assessor’s description of your property. Look for errors that inflate the value of your home, such as incorrect square footage, nonexistent amenities or an improper lot size. Any assessment error will help your appeal.
  • Compare the assessment of your property with recent sale prices of similar homes in your neighborhood. Try to find five homes that are similar but valued lower than yours. If necessary, have a Real Estate Agent pull comparable sales data (comps) for you. If it’s difficult to find comps that help your case, consider hiring an appraiser.
  • Build your case by collecting photos and documents that back up your claim, fill out your tax office’s required forms and submit by the deadline.
  • Pay your property bill on time. An appeal does not change your due date.

Finally, if you don’t want to do the legwork necessary to appeal, find a property-tax expert who will help you for a fee or on a contingency basis. 

Always consult a tax advisor for tax information and advice.

Joe Maglardi

407.963.0451

Joe.Manglardi@prospectmtg.com

Aug. 9, 2016

Mortgage Rates Remain Low

NO CHANGE FROM ECB

 

Over the past week, there were offsetting influences on mortgage rates. A relatively bond-friendly Fed statement and weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data were positive for mortgage rates. Comments from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) had the opposite effect.

 

Mortgage rates ended the week with little change.Mortgage rates benefited from a very disappointing report on economic growth. Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic growth, grew at a rate of just 1.2% in the second quarter, far below the consensus of 2.6%. Two other major recent economic reports, the ISM manufacturing and services indexes, fell a little short of expectations.

 

Since slower growth reduces the outlook for future inflation, these reports were good for mortgage rates.Recently released inflation data also was good news for mortgage rates.

 

The most recent reading for the core PCE price index, the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, showed that core inflation was just 1.6% higher than a year ago. Core PCE has held steady and remained close to this level all year. The Fed's target level for inflation is 2%.

 

On Tuesday, the minutes from the July 16 BOJ meeting were released, and they revealed that some BOJ officials are beginning to question the effectiveness of Japan's massive stimulus programs. Bond purchase programs by the BOJ and other major global central banks have helped keep U.S. bond yields and mortgage rates low. Since the BOJ appears to be less willing to add significant additional stimulus, the minutes had a negative effect on mortgage rates. Source: MBS Quoteline 

 

Joe Manglardi
NMLS# 1128287
Loan Officer
Prospect Mortgage 

280 West Canton Ave., Suite 400
Winter Park, FL 32789
Branch ID: 37395

Office: (407) 618-0322 6
Cell: (407) 963-0451
Fax: (877) 622-2135

 

Joe.Manglardi@prospectmortgage.com

 

May 31, 2016

Sellerus Dilusionalus Overpricitosis: The Struggle is Real!

 
The Orlando home inventory has declined 11% percent in April 2016 when compared to April 2015*. The cause and effect of this? Well, the demand for Orlando homes for sale has risen causing for shorter days on market thus causing the overall median price for homes for sale to rise from $175,000 in April, 2015 to $191,900 this April*. Bank Owned and Short Sale values have risen almost 12% from the previous year. Traditional homes sales have risen 7% and condos over 11%. That’s great news right? BUT, there is a “toxic” side-effect to this. The (not-so) scientific term is Sellerus Dillusionus Overpricitosis. It is the condition brought on by the misconception that a low-inventory market will support any price that a seller chooses to list their home for, regardless of the sale history and comparable  properties in the area.
Symptoms of this affliction can be:
  • A disorientation that causes the seller to misunderstand that Active property values (current homes for sale) in the area do NOT directly translate to the Fair Market Value (FMV) for properties in the area.
  • A decreased attention to detail when listing their home (such as curb appeal, indoor space presentation, etc)
  • The misconception that a Realtor isn’t needed to list, market and negotiate the sale of their home with a buyer or buyer’s agent. (I call this the "brining a rubber band to a gunfight” approach)
  • The insistence to list their home at least 25% higher than the closest comparable that just sold last week because that somehow makes sense.
  • Refusal to negotiate with a buyer at any level such as; steam-cleaning the carpets, providing a home warranty, changing locks, etc.
  • And Finally that Zillow and the DIY and HGTV channels know more about the current local market than their Realtor does. They have to right? I mean those guys are twins man! (sigh)

Typical Short and Long term affects of this affliction can be (but not limited to) the following:
  • Limited or No showings of the property in the first two weeks (the most critical stage of marketing by the way).
  • An inability to fully absorb what their listing agent is telling them about the risks of overpricing their home.
  • A slowing of local market sales due to overpricing (this can spread quickly in a community)
  • A false perception from buyers and buyers agents that something is “wrong” with the property if it is on the market for an extended amount of time.
  • A feeling of panic from the seller, causing them to:
    • Overreact and “over-compensate” by reducing their property to below market value, thus losing money on their sale.
    • Miss the Summer market completely and potentially reduce their leverage to sell dramatically.
    • Blame their Realtor for not being able to sell their property at the above suggested price.
 
Yes, this is written in “cheeky” fashion but it doesn’t make it any less true. Yes, the Orlando and Tampa Real Estate Markets both have a low inventory of homes for sale and a high demand from buyers looking to purchase. Yes, this is considered a “Sellers market” but that does not translate in to “I can price it as high as I want and someone will buy it.” Maybe someone will make an offer but if its financed, IT STILL HAS TO APPRAISE. The idea that a cash buyer will see your home and have an epiphany and trumpets will blast and they will offer you whatever price you wish (appraisal be damned!) because they must have your home is…ummm...well say that out loud to yourself three times as you look in a mirror and see if it still sounds realistic? I have these cash buyer dreams all the time and then my alarm goes off. 
 
OK, in all seriousness, it’s an awesome time to list your home and you definitely can maximize your gains this summer but this is how you do I think you should do it:
  • Research the market yourself and speak to (interview) multiple Realtors that are familiar with your market about listing your home. Have them do a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) or a Brokers Price Opinion (BPO) so you get an understanding of local values. PS: All Realtors are not the same, so make sure you interview them thoroughly and select the one MOST LIKELY TO SELL YOUR HOME (pss: call me).
  • Know your competition and price and stage your home to make it stand above them. Trust me, curb appeal and staging are HUGE with buyers and perceived value but that’s for another BLOG
  • Listen to your listing agent and let them do what you’ve hired them to do; SELL YOUR HOME. They have a vested interest in getting you the most value for your home. Trust me, if you’ve selectively chosen your Realtor, you’ll have no need for concern here. (FYI: cheaper and bigger are not better. Its all about the agent and their skill set and you get what you pay for.)
  • Understand the strategy of pricing in your particular market. This is something your listing agent should go over with you.
  • Don’t major in minor details in the 11th hour. If you have an offer that has met your expectations but you’re balking on a $900 credit to the buyer on principle, get over it! Look at what your gaining vs. what your “giving up” from a bottom line financial perspective. The worst thing you can do, in my opinion, is to get emotionally involved in the final negotiations of a sales contract. Again, let your Realtor guide you and handle the heavy lifting. 
If you follow this suggested regimen, you too can avoid Sellerus Dilusionalus Overpricitosis and enjoy the rewards of selling your home at a great price in a great market! 
 
Simplicity A Real Estate Brokerage Company is a boutique brokerage specializing in the Orlando and Tampa Bay area markets. Rob Sassos is a licensed Real Estate Broker. For more information or questions, you can e-mail him at Rob@SimplciityRE.com and visit us @ www.SimplciityRE.com. Like and Follow us on Facebook,Tumblr, Google+ and YouTube. You can also follow Rob on Twitter or Pinterest.
-Namaste
 
(*Orlando Regional Realtors Association - Market Pulse Report for April, 2016)