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The trend in mortgage rates seen since the U.S. election continued over the past week. Wednesday's report on durable goods orders also applied upward pressure. Mortgage rates increased to the highest levels of the year.
Orders for durable goods, which are products designed to last longer than three years, rose in October at the fastest pace in a year. Overall, orders jumped 4.8% from September. Excluding aircraft orders, which are very volatile from month to month, orders rose 1%. Both readings exceeded the consensus forecast by a wide margin. Since stronger economic growth raises the outlook for future inflation, this data was negative for mortgage rates.
The recent rise in mortgage rates likely will have some effect on the housing market, but fortunately, activity prior to the higher rates was at an encouraging pace. The most recent data shows that closings of existing homes in October were at the highest level since 2007. This is significant since existing home sales account for 90% of total home sales. The data on the remaining 10% - newly built homes - showed that the pace of contracts signed in October remained near the best level of the year.
The lack of inventory of homes has constrained sales all year. Low levels of inventory remain, but some relief may be on the way. Single-family housing starts in October were up 11% over September, and this measure also was at the highest level since 2007. Building permits, which are an early indication of the level of new homes to come on the market, also rose in October.
Source: MBS Quoteline
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